614
FXUS61 KILN 130649
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE BUMPED
UP WIND GUSTS ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. EPISODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PROMOTE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HELP TRANSLATE SOME STRONGER
SPS-WORTHY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HEADING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, A DEEP TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SET
UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN THE ILN CWA BEING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, UNDER CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM RUN TO RUN. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS
REPRESENT THE 50TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
TREND WARMER AND HEDGES CLOSER TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE, THEN SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN, PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW END POPS REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE TRAVELS THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. A STALLED OUT FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST (WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN) WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MORE
ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND SOME OF THAT SHOWER/STORM BLOWOFF MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA (EAST CENTRAL IN/WEST CENTRAL OH) TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT IMPULSE BEGINS TO ENCROACH INTO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED ON WITH REGARD TO TIMING
AND PLACEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, EARLY SIGNALS INDICATE THAT
TRAINING STORM MOTIONS COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 200% OF NORMAL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/QUICK RUNOFF FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL IN/ WEST CENTRAL OH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE
MUCH LARGER TROUGHING PATTERN BEGINS TO DIG AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, LIKELY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS ON MONDAY, TAPERING OFF AROUND
SUNRISE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT
IT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ALL PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY MONDAY EVENING.
VFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER WITH A MVFR DECK MOVING IN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN MOST TAF SITES, KDAY AND KILN. CONFIDENCE IS A TAD LOWER
FOR SOUTHERN SITES (KCVG KLUK) AND EASTERN SITES (KCMH KLCK), SO HAVE
TIMED IN MVFR DECK BUT KEPT THE DURATION SHORTER. MVFR CLOUDS MOVE
OUT BY MONDAY EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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