046
FXUS61 KILN 141009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
609 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED INFORMATION AND TIMING REGARDING TUESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
- MINOR UPDATES TO DETAILS ON EPISODIC STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND'S STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OHIO, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. EPISODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
3) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO TRAVEL ALONG TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ONGOING DECAYING CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE ILN FA AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AS EARLY
MORNING STORM MAINTENANCE ISN'T IDEAL DUE TO LACK OF SB INSTABILITY
AND PALTRY LL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE FACTORS
OVERWHELM THE LLJ (MENTIONED IN A MOMENT) AND STORMS DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER, A 40 KNOT 700MB LLJ STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST IN THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL OH MAY DO ENOUGH FOR STORM MAINTENANCE THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME CONVECTION RE-STRENGTHENING OR EVEN RE-DEVELOPING BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ILN BY NOON-ISH
(MERCER/AUGLAIZE COUNTIES). IF STORMS CAN SURVIVE THROUGH NOON, BY
THEN, SB INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ACROSS OUR CWA SHOULD REBOUND
ENOUGH (COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND PROFILE) TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED, STORMS PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST OF I-71.
TIMING WOULD BE BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM OR SO. MAIN HAZARDS ON THE
TABLE WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
MEANWHILE, ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT (OR LACK
THEREOF) WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. IF STORMS
HOLD TOGETHER AND BLOW THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, THIS WOULD INHIBIT HOW WARM WE GET AND THEREFORE, PROBABLY
KEEP US FROM REACHING TEMPERATURE RECORDS. HOWEVER, IF STORMS
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER OR IF TIMING IS PUSHED LATER, THEN WE MAY
BE ABLE TO TICKLE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THANKS TO THE STRONG WAA
REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA.
TUESDAY THE CURRENT RECORDS ARE CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), AND
DAY 82F (1931,1941). CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE CVG
82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY EVENING, A HANDFUL OF CAMS PULL SOME
ADDITIONAL BLOWOFF CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS RATHER LOW AT THE
MOMENT, SINCE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY TURN OVER THE
ENVIRONMENT AND OVERNIGHT TIMING WOULD INDICATE A DISSIPATION OF SB
INSTABILITY AND LL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWOFF
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS THE SAME GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
CAMS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH DECAYING STORMS
PROGRESSING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS. THE
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST,
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, WITH TRAINING STORMS AND SHOWERS, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AREA OR TWO HAVING SOME RUNOFF OR PONDING ISSUES WITH
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT FINALLY PULLS THROUGH
OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PULL THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION, WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
20 TO 25 C IN 24 HOURS. STILL A BIT EARLY TO DETERMINE FINER
DETAILS, BUT EARLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LLWS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS WILL PERIODICALLY GUST TO 30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS DECREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING, THOUGH WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH
SURFACE WINDS DECREASING, WE ONCE AGAIN NEED TO INTRODUCE LLWS AS THE
LLJ REMAINS CRANKING ALOFT.
NOW THE TRICKY PART... A HANDFUL OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (16Z THROUGH 00Z OR
SO). CONFIDENCE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MEDIUM RIGHT NOW. HAVE
HEDGED BETS TOWARD A SHORT PERIOD OF STORMS BY INCORPORATING PROB30S
AND TEMPO -TSRAS AND MVFR CONDITIONS INTO ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, BE PREPARED FOR ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO TIMING
AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD SCATTER OUT.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LLWS IS REINTRODUCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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