760
FXUS61 KILN 150706
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW WITH S LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS DISTURBANCES TRACK AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. STRONG STORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. A
FEW STORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BUILD SOUTH AND CLIP ILN/S NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER IN ILN/S AREA
AND ELEVATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500
J/KG. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CAM SOLUTIONS
SHOWING CONVECTIVE BANDS TRACKING THRU THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILN/S
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE BANDS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ML GUIDANCE ALIGNS WITH THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70, WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO. THE MOST FAVORED TIME
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM AND THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE AREA THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO INHIBIT CONVECTION FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
THE WARM STRETCH ENDS THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. CAA AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT DIP
INTO THE 30S AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. FROST MAY
BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAKENING STORMS FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD
MOVE INTO CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACTING THE TAF/S IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO
OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HAVE HANDLED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 AT THE KDAY, KCMH AND KLCK TAF SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH BUT ANTICIPATED COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THRU 11Z. SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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