929
FXUS61 KILN 151039
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW WITH S LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS DISTURBANCES TRACK AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. STRONG STORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING THRU
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. A
FEW STORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY BUILD SOUTH AND CLIP ILN/S NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER IN ILN/S AREA
AND ELEVATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1250-1500
J/KG. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CAM SOLUTIONS
SHOWING CONVECTIVE BANDS TRACKING THRU THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILN/S
AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE BANDS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ML GUIDANCE ALIGNS WITH THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70, WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO. THE MOST FAVORED TIME
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM AND THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON.
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 4/15:
CVG 84 SET IN 1976, 2010.........TODAYS FORECAST 83.
DAY 82 SET IN 2002, 2010, 2017...TODAYS FORECAST 83.
CMH 84 SET IN 2010...............TODAYS FORECAST 83.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE AREA THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO INHIBIT CONVECTION FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
THE WARM STRETCH ENDS THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. CAA AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT DIP
INTO THE 30S AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. FROST MAY
BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HAVE
HANDLED THIS THREAT WITH PROB30 AT THE KDAY, KILN, AND KCMH KLCK TAF
SITES. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER SOUTH BUT
ANTICIPATED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page