514
FXUS61 KILN 151911
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
311 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE REST OF TODAY AS WEAK IMPULSES TRAVEL OVER THE
RIDGE FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AS OF THIS
WRITING, CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED WITH THE FOCUS BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1500J AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KNOT RANGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE SOUTH OF I-70, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BASED ON THESE FACTORS, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV. WITH ELONGATED (BUT
STRAIGHT) HODOGRAPHS, MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CAMS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING, EXPECT SEVERE RISK TO BE MORE LIMITED IN NATURE. BEHIND THE
WAVE, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SCATTERED AIR MASS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS MAIN WAVE WILL BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL, IN PART, DEPEND ON THE LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY WHICH DEVELOPS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. EITHER WAY,
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME THREAT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FROST RISK SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AT DAY AND THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS
IN THE VICINITY OF AN MCV AS IT MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A CAP THROUGH THE EVENING
AND STAY DRY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH PRESENT LEVELS OF
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP AS
SHOWERS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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