586
FXUS61 KILN 152329
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRING IN THE
MORNING, EXPECT SEVERE RISK TO BE MORE LIMITED IN NATURE. BEHIND THE
WAVE, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SCATTERED AIR MASS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS MAIN WAVE WILL BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL, IN PART, DEPEND ON THE LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY WHICH DEVELOPS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. EITHER WAY,
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME THREAT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FROST RISK SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS
MAY LINGER EARLY WITH A MORE SOLID VFR DECK SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A
LINGERING SHOWER AS THIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE CHANCE IS
LOW WITH EVEN A LOWER POTENTIAL OF HAVING ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS AT KDAY
AND EVEN AT THAT THE CONFIDENCE IS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF. THIS WILL RESOLVE INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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