162
FXUS61 KILN 162320
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
720 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF I-70 THIS
EVENING. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
MID- LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN LIFTING INTO THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA SATURDAY.
CURRENT TIMING HAS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN
THE DAY FOR WEST-CENTRAL OHIO, AND DEPARTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL OH AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CAA WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FROST CONTINUES
TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IF WINDS CAN SLACKEN ENOUGH, WITH A
FREEZE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE. THERE IS A FAINT SIGNAL THAT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. THERE WAS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
THERE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AROUND CINCINNATI LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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