455
FXUS61 KILN 171829
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
229 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SLIGHT SHIFT TO
QUICKEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CWA WILL BE EAST OF US BY
NIGHTFALL. SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A LOBE OF S/W ENERGY WILL PASS
EAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING WITH IT AN INITIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BE QUICKER AND IN
EASTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TREND IS FOR THIS TO BE FASTER WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, AND IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THE SEVERE THREAT/NATURE OF ANY STORMS BEHIND IT. THIS INITIAL
LINE WILL TAP INTO 1200-1500 SBCAPES THAT ARE TRAILING WEAKENING
THETA-E AIR. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND EAST OF MAYSVILLE KY TOWARDS NOON. ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
SPC SLIGHT RISK IS KEYING OFF OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WITH
INSOLATION LIFTING MODESTLY MOIST AIR BETWEEN THE INITIAL ROUND AND
COLD FRONT. WIND PROFILES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, BUT I AM SEEING SHEAR IN A RELATIVELY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHOUT INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH.
AFTER WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS BENEATH UPPER S/W
LOBE, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS THE SFC FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING IN A WORKED-OVER BOUNDARY
LAYER. A FEW MODELS ARE HEDGING TOWARDS KEEPING STORMS ALONG/S OF
THE OHIO, BUT IF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER S/W HOLDS TRUE,
I WOULDN'T EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY.
ASSUMING THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL LINE IS EAST OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A REBOUND AND SECOND, WEAKER CONVECTIVE
LINE. MAINLY SHALLOW/ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ACTING AS A WEAK TRIGGER.
STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GENERALLY
IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
THE 60S/70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S, CLOSER TO YET STILL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MIN TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG SLY FLOW WILL
INHIBIT ANY TRAILING CONVECTION THAT MIGHT FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY PRECIP IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT QUICKLY RECOVER.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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