871
FXUS61 KILN 181813
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
213 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A REBOUND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONVECTIVE LINE AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY ALONG
EASTERN FRINGE OF CWA, WITH A PERIOD OF 2-3 HOURS WITH SHOWERS FOUND
BEHIND IT UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING.
2) BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXITING EASTERN CWA AT THE ISSUANCE TIME OF THIS
PRODUCT. NO LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED, AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN CWA. THE SHOWERS
WILL LIGHTEN IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CEASE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, WITH A NOTED WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
STRONGER GUSTS.
USING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING IT'S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT, BY 00Z IT WILL BE JUST EXITING FRANKLIN COUNTY AND STRETCH
SW THROUGH EASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY AND THEN TO MOUNT OLIVET, KY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BEHIND THE FRONT, GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, SOME UPPER
40S NORTH OF A DELAWARE-BELLEFONTAINE LINE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. IN
PARTICULAR, FREEZING LOWS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
SUN NIGHT (EXCEPTING METRO CBUS), THEN MONDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL OHIO
EAST OF A MARYSVILLE-WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE-PORTSMOUTH LINE.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK,
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS IN THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z, ENDING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT WILL REACH DAYTON AT 20Z, CINCY AT
21Z, AND WILMINGTON AT 22Z. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO WNW AND AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED 12-15KT G25-30KT. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND IT, BUT THE CONFIDENCE OF IT RESTS NORTH OF CVG/LUK. IF IT
DROPS DOWN TO 1KFT OR LOWER, IT WILL BE LESS THAN AN HOUR BUT IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR BEHIND FROPA.
CIGS LIFT OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR OUT TOMORROW. WIND RELAXES LATE IN THE
EVENING TO UNDER 10KT, BUT KEEPS UP 10-12KT AT DAY AND ILN. BEFORE
DAYBREAK, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP, BUT THE FM GROUP WAS PUT AT
15Z WHERE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN SUSTAINED 14-17KT
WINDS. AFTER 18Z, YOU COULD PROBABLY TACK ANOTHER 3-4KT ON TO THESE
VALUES.
MID CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE NW AND RELAX TO UNDER 12KT TOWARDS NIGHTFALL.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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