753
FXUS61 KILN 211915
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
315 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY. INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL WORDING BELOW FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 60S AND 70S WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A RETURN TO 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY. NO FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRIMARILY
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A LOT IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO WORK
NORTH BACK THROUGH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT STARTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE QPF
FOOTPRINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF WATER IN SPOTS WITH SOME WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION.
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS DECENT UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOME INSTABILITY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY THAT COULD
BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS DETAILS RESOLVE TO
FOCUS ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE IMPACTS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY OF THESE DAYS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER AS DETAILS RESOLVE THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
HOWEVER WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THAT DEVELOPS FOR TONIGHT. A SYSTEM WILL WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HAVE A PROB 30 AS THE SHOWERS START TO
WORK INTO THE REGION AND THEN PREVAILING SHOWERS WHEN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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