140
FXUS61 KILN 221738
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED STORM CHANCES FOR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THIS STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR/NORTH
OF I-70. SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
2) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN INITIAL BAND OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT TO THE SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N/NE KY AND FAR SRN OH. WITH A
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE INSTBY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS IT CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE LOCAL
AREA.
ONCE WE GET TO MID AFTERNOON, FOCUS WILL TURN TO CI, EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF WC AND CENTRAL OH COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW AXIS OF WNW TO
ESE LL CONVERGENCE THAT WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR/NORTH OF I-70. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AMIDST A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
~500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE, TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM WC THROUGH
CENTRAL OH. CI IS EXPECTED AROUND 20-21Z, WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE A
DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH/COVERAGE EVOLVES PAST SUNSET WITH THE
COMBINED LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTBY AND THE ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BEING
WORKED OVER. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, ON THE ORDER
OF ABOUT 20-25KTS, SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER
DISORGANIZED AND WILL TEND TO CONGLOMERATE INTO CLUSTERS THROUGH
TIME AND BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. NONETHELESS, SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT DO
THINK THIS WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY IN NATURE, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
ANOTHER ITEM TO KEEP IN MIND WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO BE THE NEARLY PARALLEL OVERLAP BETWEEN THE CONVERGENT AXIS
(SOURCE OF LIFT) AND THE STEERING-LAYER FLOW, SUGGESTING THAT SOME
BRIEF TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEND ITSELF TO
REPEATED ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS IN AN ISOLATED MANNER, WITH LOCALLY
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS, PARTICULARLY
FROM/NEAR MERCER TO LICKING COS OH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A
LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS WELL. WHILE WE ARE
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FROPA ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA, THE PROSPECT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS QUITE LOW AT
THIS JUNCTURE. IF -- AND IT IS A BIG IF -- THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALLY FRIDAY EVENING, IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED
NEAR/W OF I-75 AND NEAR/S OF I-70 INTO THE TRI-STATE AND PARTS OF SE
IN AND N KY. BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD EVOLVE AREA-WIDE FROM W TO E BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SETTING UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEEKEND.
MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE A POTENT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID MS RVR VLYS AND OH VLYS FOR
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SPECIFICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
STILL TO BE DETERMINED, THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY (HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FAVORED JUST W AND S OF THE ILN FA). ENSEMBLE AND
VARIOUS AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A S/W DIGGING INTO THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME, WITH AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF IT EARLY
MONDAY. THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE A DEEPENING SFC
LOW, WHICH IS FCST TO MIGRATE FROM MO INTO IA/WI THROUGH THE DAYTIME
MONDAY, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FLANKED TO THE S. LL AND DEEP-
LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY LEADING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/TN VLYS. THIS IS MENTIONED HERE
STRICTLY FOR AWARENESS PURPOSES AS CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOCATION,
TIMING, AND SEVERITY IS STILL A BIT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE AM SHRA/TSRA HAS DISSIPATED AND CLEARED THE LOCAL AREA TO THE S,
WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT NEAR/N OF I-70 BY 21Z. WHILE
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY STAY JUST TO THE N OF NRN SITES, THE
HIGHEST PROBS FOR TSRA WILL LIKELY FOCUS NEAR KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN ABOUT
22Z-01Z. PROB30S WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FCST AT THIS JUNCTURE AT
KCMH/KLCK/KDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD MESOSCALE AND
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS DICTATE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY PAST SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTBY AND
LOSS OF INSTBY DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING WORKED OVER.
FURTHER TO THE S, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
KCVG/KLUK/KILN, WITH SCT VFR CU THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SOME MID
CLOUDS (CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/BLOWOFF) OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE THIS EVENING. SUPPOSE THAT SOME PATCHY BR CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT NRN SITES IF THE TERMINALS RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WITH THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.
SW WINDS OF 10-12KTS, WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS, WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION. SW WINDS OF 10-12KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS,
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME VFR CU.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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