813
FXUS61 KILN 241714
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
2) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA AT BAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST (MERCER
COUNTY) THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SEE AN APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE DAY. BY EARLY EVENING, THE AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL HAVE CROSSED THE IN/OH BORDER AS A SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY TRACKED ENE TO THE TOLEDO AREA IN THE LATE EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH WSW-
ENE THROUGH MERCER, AUGLAIZE, AND HARDIN COUNTIES A LITTLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
MANSFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THERE
TO THE CINCY AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND ANY RAIN AHEAD OF IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.
GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE THE SHOWERS WILL NEED TO OVERCOME AS AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W BUTTS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER
THE CENTER OF THE CWA IN THE LATE DAY, SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
WEAK, WITH DIURNAL HEATING CREATING MINOR INSTABILITY A LITTLE
BEFORE NIGHTFALL IN THE WEST, LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE
EAST UNTIL PRECIP BEGINS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY.
WHILE OVERALL PATTERN IS PRETTY STABLE, THERE HAS BEEN A TREND
TOWARDS A BIT MORE SPREAD IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
GETS THIS FAR EAST, WHICH MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO SYSTEM STRENGTH. THE MEAN HAS CERTAINLY
BECOME SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION.
GIVEN THIS, THE CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION REACHING OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO WANE. BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT EVEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED IF THIS LATER TIMING CONTINUES AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE
DIURNAL MINIMUM OF THE TYPICALLY LOWEST INSTBY. IT DOES APPEAR A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WHICH COULD MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE OF MORE CONCERN.
WPC PUSHES A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN, WEST OF THE SCIOTO
RIVER VALLEY. BEING DAY 4, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME AND ROOM FOR
MEANINGFUL CHANGES IN HOW THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA, AND LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT IN LATER AND LATER.
WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS INDICATE TO
BE IN SOUTHEAST CWA TUESDAY MORNING. IF IT IS SLOW ENOUGH, THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, THEN SOME STRONGER
STORMS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS FIZZLED OUT, BUT
THE SHOWERS AND RAIN BEHIND IT HAS APPROACHED A BIT FURTHER EAST
TOWARDS IT. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL RUN,
AND THE TIMING NOTED IN THE KEY MESSAGE 1 OF BEGINNING OF THIS AFD
LOOKS TO STILL BE A VALID SOLUTION. CURRENT OB AT DAY HAS A 14 DEG C
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION, SO IT'S STILL GOING TO TAKE QUITE A WHILE BEFORE
PRECIP ENTERS THE CWA AND TERMINALS.
CIGS BEHIND THE RAIN LOOK TO BE MVFR UNTIL POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN TO CREATE LOWER
END MVFR CIGS THAT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, AND
THEN RISE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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