840
FXUS61 KILN 250704
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
304 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SPREAD IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS HAS NARROWED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE. SO, ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT,
WHICH TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY AS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
COULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. BUT
EVEN WITH THAT EARLIER ARRIVAL, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WANING
WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 200 PERCENT THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
A CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES EAST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. IF THAT OCCURS TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE,
THEN SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THAT AREA.
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED STORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA WILL BE ENDING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH IS
RESULTING IN SOME LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING. THIS IS QUITE VARIABLE TO
START BUT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY WIDESPREAD AND IN
THE IFR RANGE BEFORE 12Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST
IS MEDIUM AT BEST. SO THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS UNFOLDS. SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR. IF CEILINGS ARE DELAYED IN DEVELOPMENT,
THEN VISIBILITY COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AND LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER 12Z AND THEN SCATTER BY 18Z. HOWEVER,
IT DOES APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page