691
FXUS61 KILN 250802
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SPREAD IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS HAS NARROWED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE. SO, ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT,
WHICH TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY AS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
COULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WANING, THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM IN ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GET INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200 PERCENT THAT TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
A CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES EAST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. IF THAT OCCURS TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE,
THEN SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THAT AREA.
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED STORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE IS A LOT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WHICH IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS IS QUITE VARIABLE
TO START BUT EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BEFORE 12Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES
ARE SETTING THE FLIGHT CATEGORY IS MEDIUM AT BEST. SO THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS
UNFOLDS.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AND THEN
BECOME VFR BY 18Z. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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