000
FXUS61 KILN 251046
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SPREAD IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS HAS NARROWED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUITE. SO, ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT,
WHICH TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY AS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
COULD CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WANING, THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM IN ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GET INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200 PERCENT THAT TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
A CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES EAST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. IF THAT OCCURS TO A SUFFICIENT DEGREE,
THEN SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THAT AREA.
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED STORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND THEN
SCATTER BY 18Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE CINCINNATI AREA WILL
IMPROVE BY 15Z. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
AFTER 0Z, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THESE CEILINGS COULD DROP
TO IFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND
THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CEILINGS MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page