639
FXUS61 KILN 252336
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
736 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
ON MONDAY DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE
ON A WEAKENING TREND, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN OHIO,
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS, HOWEVER OTHER SEVERE THREAT TYPES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WORK UP INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ADVECT A FETCH OF MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, BEGINNING WITH THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW EARLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAKES HEADWAY TOWARD
THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS.
THE WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHIFT, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING, WILL SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CEILINGS. HAVE USED THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES WITH THE HREF TO
ESTIMATE "BURN-OFF" TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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