401
FXUS61 KILN 260632
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
232 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A NEW SECTION FOR THE SEPARATE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY AND THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. WHAT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN IS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED UPDRAFTS, LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE, ANY ONGOING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD LIKELY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AND THEREFORE WEAKER AS IT MOVED
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL, THE SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ONE, PAINTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH A LEVEL 2 OF 5 THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
GREATEST THREAT.
EVEN AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DECREASES, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN STRETCHING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS CLEARS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST
OF TWO SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EVEN WITH THE RAIN CLEARING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY SURFACE HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE, SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE LACK OF BROADER SYNOPTIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION WOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
THIS CHANGES LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY EVENING. ANY SEVERE THREAT
THAT DEVELOPS FROM THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE RAINFALL MOVES OUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ADVECT A FETCH OF MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, BEGINNING WITH THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW EARLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAKES HEADWAY TOWARD
THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS.
THE WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHIFT, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING, WILL SCATTER OUT THE
LOWER CEILINGS. HAVE USED THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES WITH THE HREF TO
ESTIMATE "BURN-OFF" TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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