519
FXUS61 KILN 270619
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
219 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ONGOING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, INHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL, WITH SOME CAM SOLUTIONS ATTEMPTING TO BRING
REMNANT PERIODS OF RAINFALL FROM WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, SOME LOW POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE
FORECAST AS EARLY AS 4 TO 5 PM. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
MAIN PUSH OF MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LATER IN THE
EVENING AFTER THE NEW AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA MOVES EAST.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN, AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
VALUES OF INSTABILITY. INSTEAD, ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENT
PRESENT WITHIN STRONG WIND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. THE HIGHEST THREAT IS STILL CONFINED TO THE PORTIONS OF
INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS OF NOW, THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS THREAT ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE IN THE 11 PM TO
3 AM TIME FRAME. AS A REMINDER, SOME RAIN MAY ARRIVE BEFORE 11 PM.
A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA, WITH
EFFECTIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
IF MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM (EVEN IF NON-SEVERE)
RAINFALL RATES CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AREA,
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE
NECESSARY RAINFALL RATES WOULD NOT PERSIST LONG ENOUGH OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TO CAUSE A CONCERN SIMILAR TO LOCATIONS TO THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN FREE AS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OR SHIFTED EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG IT. THE LACK OF A STRONGER FORCING MECHANISM LIKELY KEEPS THE
COVERAGE QUITE ISOLATED. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE FROM THE SPC, THE
SEVERE THREAT IS TRENDING LOWER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY EVENING, HELPING FOR A SURFACE WAVE/LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY
FOG AT KLUK EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS TO LOCAL TAF SITES REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT A BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 03Z-10Z. THE PERSISTENT RAIN WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS AND EVEN IFR CIGS. FOR NOW, WILL LIMIT LOWER VIS AND IFR
CIGS TO PROB30 UNTIL TIMING CONFIDENCE INCREASES. DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, A
MENTION OF THUNDER MAY BE NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK....ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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