384
FXUS61 KILN 280007
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
807 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING BACK TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD OUR AREA AND
OUTRUNS THE BETTER FORCING IN ADDITION TO ENCOUNTERING A SOMEWHAT
DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. THAT BEING
SAID, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, AS AREAS BACK TO OUR WEST FURTHER DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS TIME,
THE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES JUST OFF TO OUR WEST
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH OFF, BUT AS THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES INTO OUR
AREA, THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
TO SOUTHWEST AREAS IN THE 11 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME. BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL HELP A SURFACE WAVE/LOW SPIN UP
ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. GIVEN THE MORE
SOUTHERN TREND, ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH
THIS FEATURE. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT, A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS STARTING THE PERIOD ARE ERRATIC BETWEEN THE TAF SITES, BUT
SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED 15-20KT AND GUSTS
TO 30-35KT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 07Z-08Z. A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED, BUT STILL MAINTAIN A
RESPECTABLE 15G25KT. STRATIFORM RAIN WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
THE RULE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ENDING AROUND 07Z-09Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE INCOMING WX FROM IN/IL AS THESE STORMS
MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND BE MORE OF A TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM UNTIL THE
EXIT BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIGS REMAIN VFR FOR A WHILE AND THEN DROP TO MVFR WITH AN OCCASIONAL
DIP TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. THEY WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AND SCATTER OUT TOWARDS NOON. BY THIS TIME, WINDS WILL
HAVE TURNED MORE WSW 12-15KT G20-22KT.
OUTLOOK....ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...FRANKS
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