912
FXUS61 KILN 281046
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION
MIDWEEK, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE DAY. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE FOCUS HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE GENERATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL RIDE UP
THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE PROVIDES AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. COOLER AIR AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY, ESTABLISHING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SATURDAY
BEING THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR FROST POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL FROST IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE COOLER AIR MASS IS GOING TO SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DURING THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON MONDAY.
WHILE THE LONG RANGE PATTERN MAY CHANGE SOME, THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE (BASED ON 6-10 & 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC) THAT THE
COOLER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATER TONIGHT, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT, CAUSING WINDS TO GET BELOW 10 KNOTS
AND VARY WITH DIRECTION.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF, MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT GIVE THEN LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP THUNDERSTORMS,
EXCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH THE LATEST 12Z UPDATE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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