599
FXUS61 KILN 281907
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
307 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION
MIDWEEK, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO STALL OUT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN KY.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE
FOCUS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE LOW
PRESSURE TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS DEVELOP TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KY
AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY
BECOMING ELEVATED THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR AND LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 55
AND 60. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOLER AIR WEATHER. THERE WILL
BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THIS WEEKEND, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS A FRONT HAS SLIPPED EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AND TRACK
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THRU WEDNESDAY. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO PREVAILING MVFR WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BUMP UP TO MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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