169
FXUS61 KILN 012345
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME FROST IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION LIKELY. FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
3) EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SEASONABLY MILD PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE CHILLY AIR
RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
EVENING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS CLOUDS DIMINISH THRU THE
EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS DRIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH A FEW BRIEF WARM UPS TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEK.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE EAST WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LINGERING CAA SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, PRIMARILY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES (DAY, CMH, LCK)
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WHILE WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING THUNDER, SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR DUE TO COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG IN EASTERN OHIO THAT
MAY STRETCH INTO CENTRAL OHIO, BUT FOR NOW, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN THE TAFS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT,
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUILD IN ON SATURDAY, SO A BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP, LIKELY AROUND 5K FT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page