555
FXUS61 KILN 030642
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
242 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY WILL END LATER THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY, ENDING BY MID MORNING. FREEZE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH THE SCIOTO AND HOCKING VALLEY.
3) THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING AN
INCREASE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, PEAKING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER, ALONG WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN UPPER NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TN AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BEST
CHANCE OF FROST/FREEZE THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID/LOWER SCIOTO
AND HOCKING RIVER VALLEYS. SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN
ACROSS THE TRI STATE NEAR/AFTER DAYBREAK. IN THE LINGERING NW FLOW
LATER TODAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH INDIANA AND WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS INTO OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER
PATTERN DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN POTENTIAL IS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE
REGION SERVES AS A FOCAL AREA FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF > 1" OF RAIN RAMP UP TO AT LEAST 60 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI STATE, WITH CONTINUED 20-25% CHANCE OF 2" OF
RAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS REACH 150-160% OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM FLOODING, THOUGH WITH THE SEASONAL TRANSITION INTO
EARLY MAY, 1-2" OVER 24 HOURS MAY NOT POSE AN ISSUE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN IT COMES INTO THE
RANGE OF THE CAMS.
THE SHALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY SKC THROUGH
12-15Z, WITH A CURRENTLY DISSIPATING MID LEVEL DECK DESCENDING FROM
NEAR KDAY TO KILN. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
REGION WEAKENS AND PUSHES ESE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS EXPECTED. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY BRING SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS TO KDAY BETWEEN 19-23Z, BUT
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM A MID DECK AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES INTO OHIO WITH DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
BETTER CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLUK/KCVG WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KY POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS
TOWARD 12Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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