146
FXUS61 KILN 040633
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
233 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA, THEN LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
2) THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HAVE OBSERVED SCATTERED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN AN
AREA INFLUENCED BY A LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY, AND POSSIBLY NEW
ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS ZONE, MAY SKIRT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH
CONVECTION WILL FORM, BUT HAVE CHANCE POPS INCLUDING MOST OF
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SHARPLY CUTS OFF TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER A MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON LULL, NEW CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE DUE TO WEAK FORCING, THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST OHIO. ASSUMING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION MAY MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
OHIO DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY, GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. INITIALLY, TIMING COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY, AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN SOME MORNING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME, IT IS LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVES 1 INCH
OF RAINFALL, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL HYDRO
ISSUES ON SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS, BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK FOR
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT RESIDING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY,
INFLUENCE FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
(SHOWERS) IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT PRIMARILY MID CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ONLY HAVE SCATTERED INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY, ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE
LATEST CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION STAYS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. BEYOND
THIS MORNING, RENEWED SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. KDAY/KILN MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES, AT LEAST
INITIALLY, TO BE IMPACTED BY A STORM - CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
EAST TOWARD COLUMBUS IN THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY REMAINS GUSTY
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MAY NEED
INCLUDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF CYCLES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP
AVIATION...BPP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page