383
FXUS61 KILN 051034
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, THEN WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
2) COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND INSTIGATED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND GENERALLY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BRING RAINFALL PERHAPS WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO, AND POSSIBLY EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF THIS
RESIDUAL ACTIVITY LASTS FURTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE POPS LOWER
CONSIDERABLY TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER DAYBREAK, EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AND WILL START TO RAMP UP THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AT THAT TIME. INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS IN RAINFALL
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT,
THIS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA MAY HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES LATER INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND ANY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE EVENT,
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE TWO INCHES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RESPONSE OF ANY SMALL STREAMS, BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROMOTE COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE TROUGH, THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND WHILE MOST OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY, IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL COME
WITH A SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THERE SHOULD BE A MID-MORNING/MIDDAY LULL IN PRECIPITATION
BEFORE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS MAY OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME THAT CEILINGS DROP INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY. EVENTUALLY, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO HAVE CONTINUITY IN PREVAILING
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS TO THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP
AVIATION...BPP
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