002
FXUS61 KILN 130654
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
254 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WED AND THURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS SAT, LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND SAT AND SAT NIGHT,
LINGERING EARLY SUN IN THE NORTH. THE REST OF SUN AND MON LOOK TO BE
DRY, WITH MORE ACTIVITY FOUND LATER MON NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THEY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE REGION WARM INTO THE LOW 80S,
UPPER 80S SUNDAY, AND 90S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR CURVE, WARMING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S FRI
NIGHT, LOW 60S SAT NIGHT, AND MID-UPPER 60S SUN NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.
I DIDN'T FORGET MON NIGHT WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70 AND
HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH MERELY UPPER 60S FOR
THE REST OF US.
WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WELL OUT IN OUR FORECAST, THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. LIKEWISE,
THE FORECAST FOR HIGHEST NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE EQUALED OR
EXCEEDED MON AND TUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY, AND MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY. MODEL SPREAD AND HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY DICTATES
INCLUSION OF POPS FROM MON NIGHT ONWARD, MORESO IN THE WEST THAN IN
THE EAST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY UNDER ACHIEVING AND FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AFTER
DAYBREAK, WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE
TO 15G25KT, AND KDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATOCU DROPPING
TO THE MVFR THRESHOLD OF 3KFT. EXCEPTING CVG/LUK, A CONTINUED BUMP
IN WINDS WILL REMAIN NW BUT BE ON THE ORDER OF 17-20KTG30KT. A BREAK
IN THE CLOUD COVER TOWARDS/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL THEN SEE
STRATOCU CIGS DEVELOP AROUND 4KFT, LASTING ONLY THROUGH NIGHTFALL AT
CVG/LUK/ILN, A LITTLE AFTER NIGHTFALL AND SCATTERING OUT AT DAY. AT
CMH/LCK, THE STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE, LOWERING TO MVFR 3KFT DUE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL WHICH IS WHAT FORMED AND ULTIMATELY
MAINTAINS THIS CLOUD LAYER.
WIND AT CVG/LUK WILL CALM TO A MORE SERVICEABLE 10-12KT WITH THE
SETTING SUN. LOWERED SPEED/GUST AT DAY/ILN BUT KEPT THEM AT 15G25KT
THROUGH 06Z, THOUGH THE LAST 2-3 HOURS SHOULD SEE THEM LOSE ANY GUSTS
AND DROP UNDER 15KT. DID NOT THINK THIS WARRANTED ANOTHER FM GROUP
BUT NEXT UPDATE TO RUN THROUGH 12Z WILL SEE THIS CHANGE NOTED AROUND
03-04Z. AT CMH/LCK, SINCE THE 3KFT CIGS NECESSITATED A CHANGE, I
OPTED TO INCLUDE THEIR LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page