884
FXUS61 KILN 131056
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WED AND THURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS SAT, LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND SAT AND SAT NIGHT,
LINGERING EARLY SUN IN THE NORTH. THE REST OF SUN AND MON LOOK TO BE
DRY, WITH MORE ACTIVITY FOUND LATER MON NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THEY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE REGION WARM INTO THE LOW 80S,
UPPER 80S SUNDAY, AND 90S FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR CURVE, WARMING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S FRI
NIGHT, LOW 60S SAT NIGHT, AND MID-UPPER 60S SUN NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.
I DIDN'T FORGET MON NIGHT WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 70 AND
HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH MERELY UPPER 60S FOR
THE REST OF US.
WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WELL OUT IN OUR FORECAST, THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. LIKEWISE,
THE FORECAST FOR HIGHEST NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE EQUALED OR
EXCEEDED MON AND TUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY, AND MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY. MODEL SPREAD AND HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY DICTATES
INCLUSION OF POPS FROM MON NIGHT ONWARD, MORESO IN THE WEST THAN IN
THE EAST.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST HAS KEPT CLOSE TO 06Z ISSUANCE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL SEE A VFR CU FIELD DEVELOPING 14-16Z AND BECOME MORE
STRATOCU FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE, BUT CVG/LUK WILL NOT BE AS STRONG FOR AS LONG A PERIOD
- ENDING CLOSER TO 00Z TONIGHT. CMH/LCK WILL MAINTAIN SOME STRONGER
WINDS WITH LESS ROBUST GUSTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WHILE DAY AND ILN DROP
TO AROUND 14KT WITHOUT THE GUSTS BEGINNING ABOUT 02Z.
DURING THE DAY, ALL OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CIGS AOA 4KFT WITH A
SCATTERING OUT FOR ALL BUT CMH/LCK A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. AT
CMH/LCK, THE STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE, LOWERING TO MVFR 3KFT DUE TO
THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD POOL WHICH IS WHAT FORMED AND WILL
ULTIMATELY MAINTAIN THIS CLOUD LAYER.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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