895
FXUS61 KILN 132338
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
738 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AIR MASS SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, PROVIDING
BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL FEEL QUITE
CHILLY COME THURSDAY MORNING AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY,
INITIATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT WITH LESS RAINFALL CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
LIKELY MUCH WARMER.
AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR FOR THE REGION. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT, RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 70 TO THE UPPER 80S WITHIN THE CURRENT 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES
OF THE NBM, INDICATING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TO
THE LENGTH OF THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITHIN THE BREAKS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY, AFTERNOON WARMTH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SHEAR
LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
FAIRLY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOME SCATTERED THUNDER AND RAINFALL CHANCES LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY, PUSHING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WITH THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING
INTO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNS.
TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH FASTER
SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY. IF IT
COMES A BIT LATER, AFTERNOON HEATING COULD SUPPLY MODEST CONVECTIVE
ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CU. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG
OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AROUND KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...08
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