260
FXUS61 KILN 140701
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AIR MASS SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST. THESE READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES -
WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR FOR THE REGION. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. THE VERY WARM READINGS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BUT BASED ON THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NBM
INDICATING A 35 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR READINGS ABOVE 90 TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME OF THE ML SOLUTIONS ARE
POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME AND ENTER THE CAM SOLUTION TIMEFRAME.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY, PUSHING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WITH THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING
INTO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO SUNRISE FROM ILN THRU CMH AND LCK
WITH A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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