359
FXUS61 KILN 141024
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AIR MASS SATURDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST. THESE READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT WILL BE WARM MONDAY LIKELY INTO TUESDAY - THE NBM LOOKS TO BE TOO
WARM GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND 8H TEMPERATURE FIELDS. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES - USING A BLEND OF WPC AND SUPERBLEND WITH
HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS 90 IN THE EAST.
THE WARM READINGS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
A COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE BUT BASED ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AGAIN HAVE ADJUSTED THE
NBM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO NEAR 90 IN THE
FAR EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME OF THE ML SOLUTIONS ARE
POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME AND ENTER THE CAM SOLUTION TIMEFRAME.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY, PUSHING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WITH THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING
INTO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AT CMH AND LCK
WITH A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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