481
FXUS61 KILN 141727
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AIR MASS SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY AS LOWER
40S OCCUR AREA WIDE.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER COULD GREATLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL WARMING.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ONCE
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE LEVEL OF IMPACT OF THE REMNANT ACTIVITY
MOVING IN EARLY FRIDAY.
A PERIOD OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SETTLES IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SATURDAY VARY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
& SATURDAY MORNING SHOWERS. WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURS, TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY RISE BACK INTO THE 80S.
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, PAVING THE WAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 90S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S.
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
PRESENTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. A FASTER FRONT WOULD REDUCE THE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, AND
A SLOWER FRONT SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY RESULTS IN
COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NO STRONG INFLUENCE FROM A COOLER AIR MASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST WILL
LEAD TO A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
CLUSTER STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE SUITE OF MODELS TO INCREASE
RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE QUITE DRY SO SOME
OF THIS COULD END UP AS SPRINKLES AS IT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE, THE REST
OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY.
FRIDAY NIGHT, POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. WITHIN THE
WARM ASCENT REGION, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE THIS RENEWED SOURCE OF LIFT, THE
ANTECEDENT ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN, PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY DISRUPTS THE ABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
WARMING, COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FINDING UNCONTAMINATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS QUITE A CHALLENGE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO POSE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS,
THE CEILING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW, EVEN IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR QUARTER SIZED HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAY. PWATS ARE ANOMALOUS, BUT GIVEN
THE LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP THUNDERSTORMS, ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WOULD EXIST IN PLACES WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THEN, ATTENTION SHIFTS
TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO. LATEST LONGER-RANGE SEVERE
WEATHER TOOLS REMAIN UNIMPRESSED AND HOLD TO LOWER PROBABILITIES.
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE MEANS CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A LOW-END VFR
CEILING. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF VALLEY FOG FOR LUK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY REACH CVG/LUK/DAY/ILN FRIDAY 13Z TO 17Z,
BUT GIVEN THE LOWER CHANCES, DID NOT MENTION IN THE LATEST TAF.
WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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