199
FXUS61 KILN 151744
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE
NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
ON SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOSE WHO DO NOT SEE RAIN MAY STILL
SEE SOME DECREASING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. THIS POOL OF COOLER AIR
SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE AFTERNOON SUN AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY ERODES
THE REMAINING RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVITY COMING
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. COMBINING THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BROADER AREA SEES
THESE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN, PIN POINTING SPECIFIC LOCALS FOR
HIGHER CHANCES IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVIDE BETTER FORCING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OHIO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
IF THERE IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING,
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON COULD
DISRUPT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE
TYPICAL PERIOD OF MAXIMUM SURFACE INSTABILITY. TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
LOCALS THAT MAY SEE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL, LARGELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF STRONGER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS ENOUGH WIND FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL. THESE SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED IN THE MORNING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IF A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SYSTEM. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY AND MORESO ON TUESDAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY BASED ACTIVITY DUE TO THE HEAT AND
MOISTURE IN THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE LIFT OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SUITE OF MODELS TO ALLOW FOR A
CLEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A PERIOD OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND INTO THE LOWER 90S,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
ON THE FRONT, BUT TUESDAY COULD ALSO REMAIN QUITE WARM BEFORE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT IMPACTS THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE MITIGATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STILL SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, BUT OVERALL, THE MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IS
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z, CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL MENTIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO
PROB30 GROUPS.
WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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