723
FXUS61 KILN 161023
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE
NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
ON SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WAA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH DUE TO A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED WITH A GOOD LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE ELEVATED
LAPSE RATES >7 DEG C/KM MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ANALOGS POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT MORE
UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID- LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OHIO
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING MODERATE CAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT THE
MOST FAVORED REGION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO, PWATS INCREASE TO 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AXIS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HREF LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCHED
MEAN INDICATING THAT SOME SWATHS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OCCURS. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SYSTEM. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE
REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE MODELS SOLUTION WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURE
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MOVES THRU THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND INTO THE
LOWER 90S, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY COULD ALSO REMAIN QUITE WARM. THE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
ARE MITIGATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS WITH TEMPO OR PROB30 FOR TSRA AT TIMES WHERE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE HIGHER. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING BUT MORE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SPECIFIC LOCATION. THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR THIS SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WHERE A MENTION OF THUNDER CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z.
CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN PREVAILING VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE DURING STORMS THRU THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR LOWER
CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT KCMH AND KLCK TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THRU 08Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
THEN DROP TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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