610
FXUS61 KILN 161829
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
229 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP
IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA THIS EVENING.
2) A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL OH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AN AIRMASS
ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED MORESO ACROSS NORTHERN KY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF ENERGY AND QUASI-MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST KY WILL
BE THE KEY FEATURE TO MONITOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THIS, WITH SOUTHEAST IN LIKELY SEEING STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, THUS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BUMP TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE
1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 30+ KNOTS MAY VERY WELL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
GENERATED LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ONGOING STORMS
ALONG A DEFINED BAND SPANNING CENTRAL INDIANA, MAY POSE A HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST IN THIS EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST OH AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FOLLOWING ANY LINGERING SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OH AND EASTERN IN ON MONDAY AS HEAT/MOISTURE BUILD AHEAD OF A COOL
FRONT ARRIVING BY MIDWEEK.
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE MITIGATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT KCVG/KLUK THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. KCMH/KLCK CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR
CEILINGS BEHIND THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT WOULD EXPECT A
RETURN TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING ALLOWS FOR
SOME BETTER CLEARING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
SOUTHEAST IN AND TOWARD KCVG/KLUK. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK
TO BE IN PLAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AT KCMH, KLCK, AND KDAY TONIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AT KILN AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
THEN DROP TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR/GUSEMAN
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