263
FXUS61 KILN 162344
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP
IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA THIS EVENING.
2) A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF CENTRAL OH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AN AIRMASS
ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED MORESO ACROSS NORTHERN KY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF ENERGY AND QUASI-MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST KY WILL
BE THE KEY FEATURE TO MONITOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THIS, WITH SOUTHEAST IN LIKELY SEEING STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, THUS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BUMP TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE
1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 30+ KNOTS MAY VERY WELL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
GENERATED LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ONGOING STORMS
ALONG A DEFINED BAND SPANNING CENTRAL INDIANA, MAY POSE A HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST IN THIS EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST OH AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FOLLOWING ANY LINGERING SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OH AND EASTERN IN ON MONDAY AS HEAT/MOISTURE BUILD AHEAD OF A COOL
FRONT ARRIVING BY MIDWEEK.
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE MITIGATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN KY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MORE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS. KCVG/KLUK STILL LIKELY TO HAVE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN STORM POTENTIAL THERE, ONLY HAVE TSRA MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, WITH A SLOW, NORTHERLY PROGRESSION.
THUS, HAVE INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT
KCVG/KLUK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE GETS MUCH LOWER AT KCMH/KLCK, SO KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THERE FOR NOW.
AS FOR CIGS... NO LONGER EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FOR TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIG LOWERINGS WITH THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT, BUT THAT WOULD ONLY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IF
THAT OCCURS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/GUSEMAN
AVIATION...CLARK
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