192
FXUS61 KILN 170538
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWN FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL OFFER A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL STORMS BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL INHIBIT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. MID AD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OFFERING HEIGHT RISING AND DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA ON MONDAY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
MITIGATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THRU SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVERNIGHT NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER, WITH A SLOW, NORTHERLY PROGRESSION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
TO A PROB30 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED AT ALL TAF/S SANS
KLUK WHERE VALLEY FOG WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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