804
FXUS61 KILN 171039
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWN FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL OFFER A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL STORMS BUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL INHIBIT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. MID AD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
OFFERING HEIGHT RISING AND DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA ON MONDAY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
MITIGATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS
TO OUR WEST. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES WHICH WILL OFFER HEAVY RAIN RATES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
EXACT TIMING BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST FAVORED TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE
FROM 3 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THRU
THE NORTHERN FA WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES EARLY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED AT ALL TAF/S SANS
KCMH AND KLCK WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
EARLY.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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