432
FXUS61 KILN 172330
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
730 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED EFFICIENTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS THE ONLY LINGERING CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEST OF THE
REGION COULD INHIBIT DAILY HIGHS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT IS CLOSER. FOR MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SURVIVING INTO ILLINOIS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, REACHING INDIANA BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAR REMOVED FROM THE COLD FRONT, A CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW THE COMPLEX TO
APPROACHING THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THIS INCREASING CONFIDENCE, CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
HIGH THAT THE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ENDS QUITE SUDDENLY INTO OHIO,
CAUSING THE COMPLEX TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. POPS ARE LIMITED TO EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO, BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND REMNANT COLD-POOL
AIR MASS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD HELP LIMIT OR BRING
RELIEF TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUESDAY, DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACHIEVING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE SCIOTO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY,
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A CLEAR WARM SECTOR AND EFFECTIVE HEATING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY TROUGH AND BETTER FORCING WILL MISS
THE REGION TO THE NORTH, ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND WIND FLOW EXISTS TO
DRIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT LIMITS THE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT MOST WILL
STILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVEN IF IT IS NOT SEVERE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW AND ABOUT 20 TO
30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS SO THIS WILL
SUPPORT UPSCALED BOWING SEGMENTS AND THE ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT
THIS THREAT WOULD BE FOCUSED IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NORTHWEST
ZONES (EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN OHIO). THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE
LATER IN THE EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5
TO 10 KT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEY WILL START TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z
AND THEN START GUSTING OVER 20 KT AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...
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