215
FXUS61 KILN 181023
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE
NBM. WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY, MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID-UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
MITIGATED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY,
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
STORMS TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. CHANCE POPS ARE LIMITED TO EASTERN INDIANA
AND WESTERN OHIO, GENERALLY WEST OF I-75.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TUESDAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500
K/KG DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON - AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS WITH BLOWING SEGMENTS TO
THE THE MAIN THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST
STORMS, WITH THIS THREAT FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE SEVERE
THREAT DECREASES WITH EASTWARD DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WHICH WILL OFFER HEAVY RAIN
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING BUT AT
THIS TIME THE MOST FAVORED TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE FROM 3 PM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SANS KLUK WHERE MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE FOG BURNS OFF
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE TAF
SITES DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST - SO JUST
HAVE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OBSERVING A STORM IS AT KDAY BUT EVEN
THERE THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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