578
FXUS61 KILN 181801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO TWEAK MONDAY/TUESDAY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
FROM BLENDED SOLUTION. INCREASED PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM BLENDED SOLUTIONS, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN FAR NW FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID-UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
MITIGATED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY,
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WHILE STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE FAR NW AS THE REGION REMAINS
INFLUENCED BY A DEPARTING RIDGE, BULK SHEAR IS A LIMITING FACTOR,
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SB CAPE FROM 2500 J/KG PEAKING OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DIMINISHING TO <2K J/KG BETWEEN 20-22Z. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20-22Z, BUT WEAKENING TREND TO
CONTINUE, WITH OVERALL COVERAGE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.
A GREATER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH MAIN TIMING FROM 19-06Z, THOUGH MARGINAL
CONFIDENCE IN ESPECIALLY ONSET TIME WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM THE
CAMS. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS RAMPING UP SBCAPE VALUES TO 2500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS, BUT CAM SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW PRETTY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT,
WITH DCAPES RAMPING UP TO 900+ J/KG. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO/LOWER MICHIGAN.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PWATS RAMPING UP TO 1.6-1.8",
HREF LPMM 24 HOUR QPF POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 2.5" POSSIBLE, SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING, THOUGH GREATER HEAVY RAIN
THREAT REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING FROM INDIANA SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION,
BUT KEPT A PROB30 FOR KDAY FROM 23-03Z. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FLOW KLUK NOT AS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BR, BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS TOWARD 10-12Z.
SW WINDS 20 TO 20 TO 25KTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT, THEN RAMP
UP TO NEAR 25KTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER ~14-16Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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