620
FXUS61 KILN 190645
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO TWEAK TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM
BLENDED SOLUTION. INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE OHIO VALLEY ON TODAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR STORMS, FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 5H 75-80KT JET PIVOTS FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILN/S AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS FROM 20Z-06Z, THOUGH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
REGARDING ONSET TIME DUE TO SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 25
KTS AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS, WITH THIS MOST FAVORED AREA OVER THE
WEST. THE SEVERE THREAT DECREASES WITH EASTWARD DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S WEST TO
AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE MITIGATED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KCVG AND KLUK EARLY. OTHERWISE,
THERE WILL JUST BE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IF THERE ARE SUFFICIENT
BREAKS, THEN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG MAY OCCUR AT KLUK.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. THERE IS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING ONSET OF STORMS.
MOST FAVORED TIMEFRAME IS AFTER 20Z. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THRU THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page