322
FXUS61 KILN 191039
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO TWEAK TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM
BLENDED SOLUTION. INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 5H 75-80KT JET PIVOTS FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILN/S AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MOST FAVORED TIMING FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS FROM 20Z-06Z, THOUGH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES REGARDING
ONSET TIME DUE TO SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 25
KTS AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS, WITH THIS MOST FAVORED AREA
OVER THE WEST. THE SEVERE THREAT DECREASES SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES.
PWATS INCREASE TO 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WHICH WILL OFFER HEAVY RAIN
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S WEST TO
AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE MITIGATED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
COOL TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TAF FROM A VFR CLOUD DECK
THIS MORNING AND ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL JUST BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING ONSET OF THE
STORMS. MOST FAVORED TIMEFRAME IS AFTER 20Z. HAVE A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LOW CEILINGS
BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR BUT
A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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