057
FXUS61 KILN 200615
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OFFERING A
TEMPORARY DRY PERIODS
2) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIP SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER AND STALL OUT THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PIVOTING NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOISTURE TO OVERRIDE IT.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH ILN/S 00Z SOUNDING
RECORDING A PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD OF 1.48
FOR 5/20 00Z SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE DAY TODAY
AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
(ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST) SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA
LOOKS TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
AREA. WITH THE PWAT PLUME OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA - THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCAL
SWATHS WITH THE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
LOWER END FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS OUR INDIANA
COUNTIES, WHERE 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH MONDAY'S
EVENT.
A COOLER AIRMASS AND A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD WILL OBSERVED ON
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF 35-40 KTS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS OF
1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXITS AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY 3+. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO A FLOOD POTENTIAL THREAT.
IN CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIP SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER AND STALL OUT THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PIVOTING NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOISTURE TO OVERRIDE IT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP THIS MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH FROM GUIDANCE TO
WARRANT IFR CIGS THROUGH MAJORITY OF DAYTIME HOURS AND INTO THIS
EVENING. CIGS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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