511
FXUS61 KILN 231758
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION WITH A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING AT CVG/LUK.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK, WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER, AND SIGNS OF BUILDING HEAT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES INCREASING GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS TO THE
REGION, MARKING THE START OF A FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY,
WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST,
AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SWITCHING TO ONE WITH A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW BELOW 850MB. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN THETA-E TO THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THU-FRI-SAT,
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE
60S -- PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE WEST, AS ONE OR SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST WAVE
MAY ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY IF MORE FORCING ARRIVES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILN CWA THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME, PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE AND A GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES THAT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL FAR FROM WORKED OUT, THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE THU-FRI-SAT TIME
FRAME, WITH FRIDAY APPEARING THE MOST LIKELY DAY AT THIS POINT.
NEITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR LOOK HIGHER-END, SO IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHEN EITHER (OR BOTH) MIGHT BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION -- IF
THAT OCCURRED, IT COULD INCREASE BOTH FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR,
AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT AS A RESULT. THIS KIND OF
WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO ONE THAT WOULD SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS, SO FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOO. STILL A LONG WAY FROM ANY CERTAINTY ON THIS, BUT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE OR FLOOD POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3) TEMPERATURES INCREASING GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BIG PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE. RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS, PUTTING THE OHIO VALLEY
IN AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID. THUS, THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT TO REACH
HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUSTS EARLIER IN THE FORECAST HAVE ONLY COME THROUGH AT CMH/LCK THIS
AFTERNOON, AND I RAN WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH LATE DAY.
THIS GAVE ME THE OPPORTUNITY TO REMOVE THE CU AS WINDS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY/LOST ANY GUSTS AND THEN CREATE A NEW GROUP WITH VARIABLE
WIND AND A MORE OVC CI DECK. ALL OF THIS IS INSIGNIFICANT FOR THE
MOST PART AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BKN DECK AOA 4KFT.
ONE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT CVG. A
REASONABLY STRONG INVERSION WILL SET UP, AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE
ALL TOUCHING ON A MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION HERE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
KLUK IS ALSO SHOWING A TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MORNING FOG, AND LOOKS TO
GO IFR. AT CVG, IT WAS ODD TO SEE A 7-8 DEG SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WITH AN INKLING OF FOG. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND ROBUST INVERSION LED
ME TO JUMP ON THIS SIGNAL FOR INCLUSION IN THIS LATEST 18Z FORECAST.
FOG FORECASTING IS A FICKLE BEAST IN OUR CWA, AND THIS COULD JUST END
UP BEING A VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG UNDER THE 6' HEIGHT TEMPERATURES
ARE MEASURED AT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page