703
FXUS61 KILN 231903
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
303 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT.
HEAT INDICIES LOOK TO BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES INCREASE STEADILY AFTER FRI, WITH HEAT INDICIES
BECOMING A THREAT SUN/MON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING
AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST FROM THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINS ON THURS, THEN GETS PUSHED
OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT
WED IN THE NW CWA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING PREVALENT OVERNIGHT THURS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AIR SHOULD INCREASE PWAT TO 2"+, LINGER
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO THRU SAT. ANY PRECIP BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THURS COULD BE TORRENTIAL AND INCREASE FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
REGION. THIS IS DAY 4 OF FCST, SO MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE HONED
IN ON WITH LATER FORECASTS, AS WELL AS ANY SEVERE THREAT.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT EARLY THURSDAY IN THE
NW, AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING S/W. THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE N, THOUGH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THURS AND MAINTAIN A PRESENCE
ALONG/JUST N OF OHIO RIVER THROUGH SAT.
THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL FAR FROM WORKED OUT, THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE THU-FRI-SAT TIME
FRAME, WITH FRIDAY APPEARING THE MOST LIKELY DAY AT THIS POINT.
NEITHER INSTABILITY OR SHEAR LOOK HIGHER-END, SO IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHEN EITHER (OR BOTH) MIGHT BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION -- IF
THAT OCCURRED, IT COULD INCREASE BOTH FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR,
AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT AS A RESULT. THIS KIND OF
PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS REPEATED ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL, SO FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO INCREASED. STILL A LONG
WAY FROM ANY CERTAINTY, BUT SOME SEVERE AND/OR FLOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPERATURES INCREASING GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER RAIN-COOLED YET MUGGY AIR HAMPERS HIGHS ON FRIDAY, OVERNIGHT
LOW AND THEN SUBSEQUENT TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL SHOW A STEADY INCREASE. WHILE THE EXCESSIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE
PUSHED S/SW LATER SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A STRONG REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 80S. MON WILL BE A BIT DRIER, BUT TEMPS 90+ WILL ALSO BE
IN PLAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THESE DAYS
AND BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THERE WILL BE MANY POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEW WEEK, THE SIGNALS ATTM FELT STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE SOME
INCLUSION IN THE DISCUSSION.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUSTS EARLIER IN THE FORECAST HAVE ONLY COME THROUGH AT CMH/LCK THIS
AFTERNOON, AND I RAN WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH LATE DAY.
THIS GAVE ME THE OPPORTUNITY TO REMOVE THE CU AS WINDS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY/LOST ANY GUSTS AND THEN CREATE A NEW GROUP WITH VARIABLE
WIND AND A MORE OVC CI DECK. ALL OF THIS IS INSIGNIFICANT FOR THE
MOST PART AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BKN DECK AOA 4KFT.
ONE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT CVG. A
REASONABLY STRONG INVERSION WILL SET UP, AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE
ALL TOUCHING ON A MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION HERE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
KLUK IS ALSO SHOWING A TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MORNING FOG, AND LOOKS TO
GO IFR. AT CVG, IT WAS ODD TO SEE A 7-8 DEG SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WITH AN INKLING OF FOG. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND ROBUST INVERSION LED
ME TO JUMP ON THIS SIGNAL FOR INCLUSION IN THIS LATEST 18Z FORECAST.
FOG FORECASTING IS A FICKLE BEAST IN OUR CWA, AND THIS COULD JUST END
UP BEING A VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG UNDER THE 6' HEIGHT TEMPERATURES
ARE MEASURED AT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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