896
FXUS61 KILN 241827
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
227 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS WELL
AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
2) TEMPERATURES INCREASING GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA, THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS TO FORM.
THESE MAY BE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN SLOWLY START LIFTING NORTH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT,
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE
ONE ON THURSDAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL BE LOWER BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN. THIS WILL EVEN MORESO HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES TWO INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASE TO 4 KM MAKING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE THE FRONT MAY BE LOCATED WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
MORE OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARDS AND
EXTEND FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE EARLY TO MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BECOMING HOT.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST MAY BE A SHADE ON THE HIGH SIDE, THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH 100 OR MORE FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. CUMULUS TO START WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS ON THURSDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO DEVELOP NEAR KDAY AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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