167
FXUS61 KILN 250024
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
824 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS WELL
AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
2) TEMPERATURES INCREASING GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA, THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS TO FORM.
THESE MAY BE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN SLOWLY START LIFTING NORTH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT,
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE
ONE ON THURSDAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL BE LOWER BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN. THIS WILL EVEN MORESO HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES TWO INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASE TO 4 KM MAKING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE THE FRONT MAY BE LOCATED WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
MORE OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARDS AND
EXTEND FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE EARLY TO MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BECOMING HOT.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST MAY BE A SHADE ON THE HIGH SIDE, THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH 100 OR MORE FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FAIR WEATHER FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE HANDLED
THIS THREAT WITH A PROB30 MENTION.
WEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10KTS THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...AR
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