884
FXUS61 KILN 251001
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES TODAY PUSHING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP SPARK
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND DESCENT SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS)
OVERLAP WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT BIGGER PUSH OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OCCURS FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT COMPARED
TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A LLJ COMES INTO THE AREA AND PWATS
APPROACH 2 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BEGINNING MONDAY, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF
STATES CONTINUOUSLY BRINGS IN WARM, MOIST AIR. FORECAST HIGHS BY MID
WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
70S. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPS TODAY. BY THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
COVERAGE PEAKS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT SOME
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT WITH A STALLED
FRONT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING REMAINS
LOW.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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