537
FXUS61 KILN 261009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
609 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A STALLED FRONT IS LAYING ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES OCCURRING. OVERNIGHT, THE NOSE OF
A NOCTURNAL LLJ WORKS IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE
FOCUSED AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE A SEVERE STORM THREAT, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY
MORNING AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL SWATHS OF 2+
INCHES OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CAM GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE
METEOROLOGICAL SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN, SUPPORTS ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD
WATCH SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ON MONDAY, AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF STATES CONTINUOUSLY
BRINGS IN WARM, MOIST AIR. FORECAST HIGHS BY MID WEEK ARE LIKELY TO
BE IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. LOWS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS STARTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION,
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. BY THE EVENING, A MORE WIDESPREAD PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE NOSE OF AN LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SLOWLY DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A NOCTURNAL
LLJ.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ063-070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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