783
FXUS61 KILN 261909
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN MCV MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STORMS AHEAD OF IT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THESE COULD
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO LEWIS AND SCIOTO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM IN THAT AREA WHERE THERE IS
AN INTERSECTION OF SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
ANOTHER MCV IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL FOLLOW, MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. AND YET ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY FOLLOW THAT.
THERE WILL BE A WEST SOUTHWEST-EAST NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL MAXIMIZE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SO THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE FURTHER. WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL ALSO
BECOME DEEPER. THUS THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED STORMS. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE FORECAST AREA OR REMAIN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY. BUT THE FLOOD WATCH SEEMS TO HAVE THE AREA OF
GREATEST THREAT COVERED.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHERN OHIO THAT MAY NOT MOVE VERY MUCH. SOME CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS AREA IS ALONG THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT, BUT SHOULD STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS, THERE COULD BE A
SECONDARY RAINFALL AXIS NORTH OF I-70. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
COVERAGE IS LOW.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE NEBULOUS FORCING THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HOW THAT EVOLVES. THERE WILL BE A LEFT OVER WEST-EAST
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ALONG IT FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION, EVEN IF IT IS LIMITED, EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR IS
QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST UNTIL THESE STORMS
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE THAT AN EXPANSIVE MID
LEVEL HIGH WILL PREDOMINATE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME SPREAD HEADING INTO FRIDAY HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MAY GET
SUPPRESSED AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BUILDING ON MONDAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL ERRORS IN FORECAST
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT CAN ADD UP TO LARGER ERRORS IN THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EVEN WITHIN THE PROBABILISTIC SPACE, THERE HAS
BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN PROBABILITIES OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 100 AND 105 JUST BETWEEN LAST NIGHT'S RUNS AND TODAY'S. IT
REMAINS SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR
ONE OR MORE DAYS, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY OF THAT IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW (25 PERCENT OR LESS).
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
THOSE REDUCTIONS IS QUITE CHALLENGING.
GENERAL WEST-EAST AXIS OF LOWER CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD WILL
LIFT A BIT NORTHWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL
AREA WIDE AFTER 00Z. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT ALL TAF SITES
WILL BECOME IFR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY RETURN TO MVFR BEFORE 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ063-070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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